Our Clocker's Take on Renegade's Work
Following up on our lead story from yesterday, Renegade put in his first breeze since the Arkansas Derby at Palm Beach Downs — four furlongs in :48.91, galloping out three-quarters in 1:01.88 in company with stablemate Powershift. Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form was impressed enough, saying Renegade "looked the part of the potential Kentucky Derby favorite." But here's the thing about workout analysis — very much like trip analysis, a lot is left to the eye of the beholder. See for yourself:
📹 Watch the work
Renegade — 4F in :48.91 at Palm Beach Downs →
In the Money workout analyst Chris Cupples, an esteemed horseplayer, saw it differently.
"Without being overly critical, I thought he looked a bit average. He needed encouragement along nearly the entire time, but always responded and picked it up when asked. With horses of this caliber I prefer to see them travel without being pushed on. In his prior works he went much easier." — Chris Cupples
There's obviously room for improvement and this doesn't mean you should toss the horse or anything. But the visual impression matters a lot in these final moves before the Derby, and Cupples wasn't impressed yesterday. Speaking of Cupples, he will be offering workout analysis of all the available Derby works as part of our In the Money Plus coverage. This isn't some naked upsell — we will have a ton of great information free on the sites and YouTube channel, but if you want all the best info, including proprietary speed figures, trip work, deep dives on every horse and grid picks from the team, you want to get in on the Plus side of things.
Workouts ahead of the Derby are famous for having a much bigger impact on the market than for any other race. If Renegade working only OK becomes part of the narrative, is it possible I've jumped the gun in confidently saying he'll be the favorite?
Does Renegade Have to Be the Derby Favorite?
ITM's own Nick Tammaro, taking over for Mike Battaglia after 51 years, projects a tight top three: Renegade 9-2, Commandment 5-1, Further Ado 6-1. No one is pulling away.
"It would be foolish to ignore what's happening in the market and the public reaction after the Arkansas Derby. Renegade has to be the favorite right now, but this isn't a race where anyone is going to be odds-on or even close." — Nick Tammaro, Churchill Downs
Commandment has won four straight. Further Ado popped a 106 Beyer in the Blue Grass. Renegade has the closing kick and the connections — but after yesterday's work, the question of who goes favored on the first Saturday in May is more open than ever.
