Daily to Derby

Can You Win the Kentucky Derby From the Rail?

Ferdinand did it in 1986. Nobody has done it since. That's 40 years and counting.

When Renegade drew post 1 on Saturday, it sparked the biggest debate of Derby week. We went deep on the data: 26 horses have broken from the rail in the modern era (2000-2025). Zero have won. Only one hit the board — Lookin At Lee, a 33-1 shot who ran second in 2017. The Impact Value for post 1 wins in this period is 0.00.

But the raw numbers don't tell the whole story. The Equibase chart comments do: "Hustled inside, faded." "Inside trip, no rally." "Shuffled, shifted out, failed to threaten." "Wheeled out ten wide, making up ground too late." From the rail in a 20-horse Derby, the comfortable midpack trip doesn't exist. Nineteen horses are breaking outside you, all funneling toward the same first turn, and the jockey has two choices — gun forward and burn energy, or take back and hope you find room. There is no easy stalking trip from post 1.

Irad Ortiz Jr. has been here before. Known Agenda from the rail in 2021 — ninth. Mo Donegal from the rail in 2022 — fifth. Now Renegade from the same gate.

Not everyone agrees the rail is a death sentence. Owner Mike Repole: "I'll take Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., and the best horse in the race from the 1 post every time." DRF's David Aragona pushed back on the post 1 narrative too. Both have logic on their side. But personally, I don't think the gate itself is capable of solving the larger problem of what the rail draw means for the trip.

Renegade can still win this race. But the job just got a lot tougher. And here's something worth remembering: Mo Donegal won the Belmont five weeks after the rail buried him in the Derby. If things don't work out Saturday, we can look for him in five weeks' time.

👉 Read the full analysis

"The Horse Has to Take You Here"

FanDuel TV's Caton Bredar — who always does excellent work — caught up with Chad Brown on Tuesday morning as Emerging Market and Always a Runner went through their paces. The whole interview is worth four minutes of your time, but the best detail: Brown called Emerging Market "quite a feminine looking horse" standing still, but said when you put the tack on him "he gets a little bigger and stronger. You wouldn't pinpoint him as one of the smaller horses in the field." Nothing bothers this horse. Two starts, two wins, and Brown says this isn't a push — "the horse has to take you here, and I feel like this horse took us here."

👉 Watch: Chad Brown with Caton Bredar on FanDuel TV

Every Horse in the Derby Field Now Has a Monster Pod

The full series is live. Every single horse in the Kentucky Derby field has a dedicated standalone episode. The latest drops:

👉 Potente Monster Pod

👉 Emerging Market Monster Pod with Acacia Clement

👉 So Happy Monster Pod with Britney Eurton

👉 Silent Tactic Monster Pod with Griffin Johnson

👉 Sean Boarman's Derby Day Breakdown — Plus subscribers get the full LP5 picks and wagering strategy

The Gospel According to Brad Cox

The annual Kentucky Derby Trainers' Dinner — brilliantly co-hosted as always by our friends Andrew Brown and Darin Zoccali — produced the quote of the week from Brad Cox, who laid down the Commandments of his barn: stay on the RIGHT side of the horse, don't call it a win at the 1/8 pole, and thou shall NOT urinate in a stall. Bill Mott nodded in agreement. We love Derby week.

(h/t Blaise Bollman)

So Happy's Story

If you haven't read it yet, the So Happy story is one of the most moving pieces of Derby week. Trainer Mark Glatt's wife Dena died of heart failure at 57 shortly after So Happy's first stakes win. Glatt now wears a bracelet with some of her ashes. Mike Smith, 60 years old, is trying to become the oldest jockey to win the Kentucky Derby. The owners are a mom-and-pop operation: "Everyone thinks this sport is only for the rich — it's the sport of kings — but it kind of lets people know that you can also get in the game."

So Happy is 15-1 from post 8. Whatever happens Saturday, this horse has already given his people something extraordinary.

Rain is in the forecast for late Friday. Chad Brown has already moved Emerging Market's final work up to Friday morning to beat it. If it persists into Saturday, track condition becomes a factor. We'll monitor.

Final Answers: TONIGHT in Lexington

Bet Share Closes TOMORROW

Our Bet Share for the Derby is open until tomorrow. We will be swinging at the Derby LP5 and Superfecta with proper ticket construction. If you want to join us, sign up for our Inner Circle service, which has numerous other benefits, and reach out to let us know you want in. You can do that via inthemoneyplus.com or contact us directly here.

Free Derby Contender Profiles — 19 Live

👉 Browse all contender profiles

Links & Resources

👉 Yesterday's D2D: Brad Cox Joins the Monster Pod

👉 Can You Win the Kentucky Derby From the Rail? (ITM Original)

👉 Is Todd Pletcher Actually Bad in the Kentucky Derby? (ITM Original)

👉 Derby OddsWatch — updated April 26

👉 Brad Cox Monster Pod

👉 Right to Party Monster Pod with Kenny McPeek — you'll never believe the bet JK made

👉 Albus & Incredibolt Monster Pod with Riley Mott

👉 Danon Bourbon Monster Pod with Alex Henry

👉 Every Derby Winner of the 21st Century, Ranked — with Duke Matties

👉 Free Bris Derby PPs (PDF)

Blanton's Single Barrel

MSRP $65 · 46.5% ABV · Single Barrel Bourbon

You know the bottle even if you've never tasted what's inside it. That little horse and jockey on the stopper — one of the most recognizable images in American whiskey — is Blanton's, and there's a reason people hunt for it.

Blanton's was the world's first commercially marketed single barrel bourbon, released in 1984 by master distiller Elmer T. Lee at what is now Buffalo Trace. Each bottle comes from one barrel, which means no two are exactly alike — and the barrels selected for Blanton's are stored in Warehouse H, a metal-clad warehouse that sits on a hill above the distillery where temperature swings are wider and the aging process more aggressive. That's where the depth comes from.

What you get: rich toffee and dried fruit on the nose, a palate of baked apple, cinnamon, and a touch of citrus, with a smooth, slightly sweet finish that lingers without burning. At 93 proof it's approachable but not thin — there's real complexity here for a bourbon at this price point. The problem, as always, is finding it. At MSRP ($65) it's a steal. On the secondary market it can run $100-150, which is still not unreasonable for what you're getting. If you see it, buy it.

The stopper, by the way, features eight different poses of the horse and jockey — one for each letter in B-L-A-N-T-O-N-S. Collectors try to complete the set. Derby week seems like a good time to start.

Tomorrow's Derby Dram: the one PTF actually drinks at home.