Daily to Derby

PTF and Mikee P. Recap the Derby

The full Derby recap show is live. PTF and Mikee P. dissect the last-to-first win, the Ortiz brothers going 1-2, the pace meltdown, who we want to bet back, and Mikee's walkover experience — which he says was like a dream come true after 30 years in the game.

Key takeaways from the show:

Golden Tempo and Renegade both earned a 95 Beyer. Historically low for a Derby. The pace melted down and closers swept 1-2-3-4.

Danon Bourbon may have run the best race. He was third at the half mile pole while the top four finishers were 18th, 15th, 16th, and 10th. He opened up by two lengths in the stretch before shortening stride. PTF and Mikee both flagged him as the horse they'd want out of the race going forward.

Crude Velocity got a 100 Beyer for the Pat Day Mile and Mikee thinks it should be higher. "I would not bet against Crude Velocity no matter where he shows up."

Renegade got knocked around on the rail — exactly what we warned about in Edition 20.

Derby Betting Falls for the First Time in Five Years

Derby Day betting fell for the first time in five years. The Derby itself was down 3% to $215.97 million. WPS pools dropped 6.8%. DRF's Matt Hegarty points to the wide-open field — no horse below 5-1, six horses between 5-1 and 9-1 — as a factor that may have suppressed casual betting.

But the Oaks in primetime was a blockbuster. Betting on the Oaks jumped 29% to a record $29.2 million. The NBC broadcast averaged 2.4 million viewers — an eightfold increase over the USA Network years. The Derby broadcast itself drew 19.6 million viewers, up 11%, with a peak of 24.4 million.

The octavecta — Churchill's new "pick the first eight in order" bet — had $955,859 in handle on the Derby. Nobody won. $273K carries.

👉 Read: Kentucky Derby Day Betting Flat; Oaks Day Wagering Robust (DRF)

"I've Been Thinking About Paladin"

Chad Brown applauded his former assistant Cherie DeVaux for the Derby win — "She was always an extremely hard worker. Well deserved to her and her team" — but admitted the result hit him in a particular way. His horse Paladin, who beat Golden Tempo twice this winter (in the Risen Star and through Emerging Market in the Louisiana Derby), never made the Derby due to injury.

"I haven't occupied my mind too much exiting this Derby going over my trip with Emerging Market. A portion of that has been occupied thinking of Paladin, to be honest with you. Because the race set up for him and he beat both those horses. That's horse racing."

Brown drew a parallel to last year, when Brad Cox's Tappan Street — who had beaten Derby winner Sovereignty in the Florida Derby — got hurt in his final workout and missed the race entirely.

Also from Brown: Emerging Market lost a front shoe during the running of the Derby. That explains the 10th-place finish — Prat on potentially the best figure horse in the field, loses a shoe mid-race.

👉 Read: Brown Applauds DeVaux While Thinking of Paladin (DRF)

The Phipps Family — A Century in the Making

The BloodHorse published a beautiful piece on the Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable partnership that produced Golden Tempo. The family's involvement in racing traces back to Mrs. Henry Carnegie Phipps, who founded Wheatley Stable in 1926 — an operation that owned Bold Ruler, the sire of Secretariat. A direct line from a century-old stable to Saturday's winner.

Daisy Phipps Pulito, the family's racing manager: "When they're born, you say 'Oh this could be the one.' Then you spend the next three years of your life wondering if that's going to happen, and it did."

We'll have Daisy on an episode of On the Lead later this week.

👉 Read: Phipps, St. Elias Partnership Produces Derby Winner (BloodHorse)

Almost Entirely Fresh Faces

The Preakness field is shaping up to be large and almost entirely fresh — virtually no Derby horses are coming back. Draw is Monday, May 11. Post time 6:45 PM ET on NBC. Limited to 14 starters.

Oddschecker prices:
Crude Velocity 6/4 · Taj Mahal 6/1 · Silent Tactic 6/1 · Golden Tempo 6/1
Iron Honor 12/1 · The Hell We Did 12/1 · Chip Honcho 12/1

Golden Tempo: DeVaux shipped him to Keeneland Sunday. Decision by end of week. Multiple sources suggest the Belmont — at a mile and a half — is a better structural fit for a deep closer than the Preakness at 1 3/16 miles at Laurel.

Renegade: Confirmed out. Pletcher pointing to the Belmont.

Crude Velocity: Oddschecker favorite at 6/4 after a dominant Pat Day Mile. Baffert's record 9th Preakness on the table.

Taj Mahal: 3-for-3, all at Laurel Park. Has literally never raced anywhere else. Ultimate home court advantage.

Ottinho: OUT — Brown confirmed no Peter Pan or Preakness.

Our Preakness Top 5 video is coming soon.

ITM Originals & Archive

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