Daily to Derby

One of the things I like to do ahead of a major race is compare odds. For this year's Preakness, we have the track morning line, designed to approximate what the public will bet. We also have the DRF morning line, also a guess at what the public will do. This one is set this year by David Aragona, one of the sharpest line makers (and handicappers) in the business. We also have the fixed-odds bookmaker market — there are several of them out there but I'm using what I generally consider to be the sharpest book when it comes to U.S. racing — bookmaker odds are significant because actual money will be wagered on these lines (compiled via oddschecker).

Might as well remind folks one more time the difference between a morning line and a value line — a morning line is a guess as to what the public will do, built with an overround (to account for takeout). A value line should equal 100% and is one player's estimation of each horse's chances of winning the race.

All three sources are running about a 30% overround on this 14-horse field, so the raw odds are roughly comparable. But the disagreements might be instructive to examine.

Saturday, May 16 · 6:50 PM ET · NBC · Laurel Park

Chip Honcho (PP6)

This is the widest split in the top tier. Oddschecker has him at 4/1 — their second choice behind Iron Honor. Aragona has him at 8-1, implying he thinks the public will make him a secondary contender. The track ML splits the difference at 5-1.

What's the source of the disagreement? Asmussen skipped the Derby specifically because Churchill's 150,000-person crowd makes this horse aggressive and hard to manage. Laurel is capped at 4,800. "Limited attendance at Laurel as opposed to what they get in that run to the first turn for the Derby, this gives him a way better chance to show who he was," Asmussen told DRF's David Grening. He was a half-length second to Paladin in the Risen Star and 5 1/2 lengths clear of Golden Tempo that day. Jose Ortiz — the hottest rider in the world — is aboard. The books are buying the narrative. Aragona thinks the public won't fully buy it.

My view: if you believe Asmussen — and he's earned the right to be believed — Chip Honcho at anything north of 5-1 on the tote is an overlay. Post 6 is ideal. Jose Ortiz is ideal. The crowd is ideal. Everything he needs is in place. The question is whether two poor efforts (Lecomte 4th, Louisiana Derby 5th) were circumstantial or a sign that the horse just isn't good enough when it matters. I'll give more thoughts on him in my horse-by-horse write-up that attheraces.com will publish any minute now.

Iron Honor (PP9)

The track ML favorite at 9-2 and bet365's top pick at 7/2, but Aragona has him at 6-1. Brown's Gotham winner skipped the Derby entirely and now has Flavien Prat from post 9. The Gotham was impressive. The Wood Memorial — a disappointing seventh — was not. Which version shows up? Brown is a two-time Preakness winner. At 7/2 there wouldn't be much meat on the bone; at 6-1 (if that educated guess ends up being more accurate) you're getting compensated for the risk.

Ocelli (PP2)

Aragona has him at 9-2, making him the DRF's second choice. bet365 has him at 15/2 — significantly higher. The track ML is 6-1.

The case for: he nearly won the Derby at 70-1, taking the lead at the 16th pole before Golden Tempo and Renegade ran him down. Gaffalione told Horse Racing Nation: "He could definitely be that one. He definitely earned his right to be here."

The case against: for one thing, he's a maiden who got a great set up in the Derby. No winless horse has won the Preakness since 1888 (Refund). And there's a significant race-shape question — Ocelli's Derby third came in a race where the pace collapsed and closers swept the board. He may be one of the great FLOW downgrades of all time. The pace could certainly heat up in a big field but it's not certain to. It's hard to know what kind of trip he's going to get. My morning line on Ocelli would be lower than my value line. He's a bit of a "public" horse via his Derby success but to me the hurdles are significant.

Incredibolt (PP12)

5-1 track / 4-1 DRF / 5-1 bet365 — Aragona's guess of the public's choice at 4-1, and the story of the draw. Riley Mott — Bill Mott's son — sends him after his father infamously said "nobody talks about the Preakness." I guess the apple does fall far from the tree.

Jaime Torres won the 2024 Preakness on Seize the Grey and has ridden Incredibolt in all six starts. Torres told Horse Racing Nation after the Street Sense Stakes: "I told my agent he could be the next Sovereignty."

He's certainly got a chance but another where I worry that the Derby running line drives down the price. Plus, he got a pretty good trip in there all things considered and the race simply was not fast. Still, his credentials are obvious enough.

Three sources, three different stories. The fixed odds say Iron Honor and Chip Honcho are the horses to beat. Aragona says the Derby runners will attract the most attention. The track ML says it's wide open with four horses between 9-2 and 6-1. In a race this contentious, I'm looking for value in the disagreements.

Full Preakness analysis coming later this week on the ITM channel and at dailytoderby.com.

Odds via Oddschecker, DRF (@HorseToWatch), and Laurel Park track morning line. All odds subject to change.

100 Years of History into a Kentucky Derby Win

The Daisy Phipps Pulito interview is live on On the Lead. Shannon Kelly and PTF sit down with the racing manager of Phipps Stable — a century-old breed-to-race operation — following Golden Tempo's Kentucky Derby victory.

Daisy on the Carrumba connection: the Top Flight Stakes at Aqueduct was supposed to run a week earlier but was postponed for weather. It ended up running four days after her father Dinny Phipps passed away. Jose Ortiz rode Carrumba to victory — the first Phipps Stable horse to run and win after the patriarch's death. Ten years later, the same jockey rode Carrumba's son to win the Kentucky Derby.

"She'll forever be in my heart. It brought joy to our family at a terrible time."

On Cherie DeVaux: "She's real patient. We needed somebody patient with him." On the prep races: "It was very clear in her mind and our minds the entire time that he didn't necessarily need to win those races because those weren't his preferred distance. What mattered was that they were prep races for the first Saturday in May."

On the 100th anniversary: "That we got to do that with our children. They're so fired up about what's going on right now."

Also: Daisy joined Billy Koch and Michelle Yu on the Owner's Box this week.

Danon Bourbon, who ran a strong fifth in the Kentucky Derby, has been found to have a knee fracture sustained in the race. Trainer Ikezoe confirmed the news today via Netkeiba. He'll undergo bone chip removal surgery at the Shadai Clinic in Hokkaido and is expected to miss the rest of 2026.

Jose and Irad Ortiz Jr. were honored by the Governor of Puerto Rico for their historic 1-2 finish in Kentucky Derby 152. (Paulick Report)

👉 The Draw Is Set — and Another Favorite Is Gone

👉 The Other Side: Motion and McCarthy on the Triple Crown

👉 What Does the Data Say About the Triple Crown Conversation

👉 Is The Triple Crown Schedule Actually a Problem? — PTF and Randy Moss

👉 Browse all 34 Daily to Derby editions