📊 Four Lines, One Race
Where We Stand This Morning
We've been tracking this market all week. Here's where four different sources stand as of Saturday morning. The morning line (ML) was set at the draw Monday. Marshall Gramm's imputed odds come from real money in Friday's Black-Eyed Susan — Preakness double. The Betfair exchange is the sharpest fixed-odds market available. And the early US tote is the first look at parimutuel money.
| PP |
Horse |
Jockey |
ML |
Gramm |
Betfair |
Tote |
| 1 | Taj Mahal | S. Russell | 5/1 | 5/1 | 5/1 | 5/1 |
| 2 | Ocelli | T. Gaffalione | 6/1 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | Crupper | J. Alvarado | 30/1 | 50/1 | 69/1 | 23/1 |
| 4 | Robusta | R. Bejarano | 30/1 | 50/1 | 29/1 | 28/1 |
| 5 | Talkin | I. Ortiz Jr. | 20/1 | 12/1 | 10/1 | 9/1 |
| 6 | Chip Honcho | J. Ortiz | 5/1 | 9/1 | 5/1 | 11/1 |
| 7 | The Hell We Did | L. Saez | 15/1 | 11/1 | 17/1 | 9/1 |
| 8 | Bull by the Horns | M. Husbands | 30/1 | 45/1 | 54/1 | 16/1 |
| 9 | Iron Honor | F. Prat | 9/2 | 6/1 | 5/1 | 7/1 |
| 10 | Napoleon Solo | P. Lopez | 8/1 | 7/1 | 9/1 | 11/1 |
| 11 | Corona de Oro | J. Velazquez | 30/1 | 22/1 | 28/1 | 15/1 |
| 12 | Incredibolt | J. Torres | 5/1 | 3/1 | 5/1 | 5/1 |
| 13 | Great White | A. Achard | 15/1 | 27/1 | 25/1 | 7/1 |
| 14 | Pretty Boy Miah | R. Santana Jr. | 15/1 | 25/1 | 23/1 | 32/1 |
Saturday, May 16 · 7:01 PM ET · NBC · Laurel Park
Gramm odds imputed from BES-Preakness double (Friday). Betfair exchange. Early tote via TwinSpires.
The Headlines
Chip Honcho: 5/1 ML → 11/1 tote. The US public doesn't want him. Betfair has him at 5/1. If Asmussen is right about the crowd-size thesis, this is the overlay of the card.
Iron Honor: 9/2 ML favorite → 7/1 tote. Drifting everywhere. The morning line favorite is now a mid-pack choice.
Incredibolt: 3/1 Gramm → 5/1 everywhere else. The BES double money loved him most, but the tote and exchange have cooled.
Great White: 7/1 early tote from 15/1 ML. Someone is pounding this horse. Betfair has him at 25/1. Massive disconnect.
Talkin: 9/1 tote from 20/1 ML. The Irad effect is real.
Early pools are thin — these will move. But the direction is clear.
📰 DeVaux Confirms the Hypothesis
The Athletic Interview
Our friend Teresa Genaro has an excellent piece at The Athletic this morning — a sit-down with Cherie DeVaux on the trend of Derby winners skipping the Preakness. DeVaux's answers are as candid as you'll find from any trainer in the sport right now, and one passage in particular jumped out.
In our Edition 29, I speculated — carefully, with the "at least worth asking" caveat — that changes in medication rules might be a factor in why modern trainers are reluctant to run back in two weeks. DeVaux, unprompted, essentially confirmed it:
"Things that could have gotten a horse who came out of a race a little sore could have been done in the past within the rules, now we don't have that. We are not allowed to do that. The oversight is definitely much harder now to help a horse that might need some in that short amount of time to run."
And then this: "I can confidently say that there are horses that were very good horses and great horses in the past that would not be able to run in the current regulatory climate that we have now."
That's the Kentucky Derby-winning trainer saying on the record what I was speculating about a week ago. It doesn't mean the medication changes were wrong — horses are safer now by every metric — but it does help explain why the two-week turnaround has become untenable for the sport's best trainers under most circumstances.
I'll have more to say on this topic soon. I am working on an editorial on the Triple Crown spacing issue that will be published at attheraces.com.
👉 Read: Cherie DeVaux Helps Explain Trend of Derby Winners Skipping Preakness (The Athletic, Teresa Genaro)
🐴 The Orphan in Post 11
Eclipse Award-winning writer and friend of the show Joe Clancy has a beautiful piece at This Is Horse Racing about Corona de Oro — the horse in post 11 at 30/1 whose dam, Lemon de Oro, hemorrhaged and died shortly after foaling him. He was orphaned at 36 hours old. A nurse mare named Special Skippy from HeavenSent Nurse Mares stepped in and raised him at Willow Oaks Farm in Jarrettsville, Maryland.
A Kentucky-bred orphan raised in Maryland, now running in the Preakness at Laurel. Racing writes its own stories.
👉 Read: Nurse Mare Helped Preakness Starter Grow Up (This Is Horse Racing, Joe Clancy)
Looking for more on the Preakness, including grid picks from the team, coverage on the undercard, and wagering strategies?
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🌹 Golden Tempo Update
Meanwhile, at Keeneland: Golden Tempo worked a half mile in 48.3 Thursday morning in company with So Sandy. First breeze since the Derby. Belmont June 6 is on track. (Gabby Gaudet, @Gabby_Gaudet_)
🎙️ Your Preakness Toolkit
👉 My horse-by-horse guide at ATR
👉 Final Answers — Preakness Edition (live show)
👉 Wagering Menu — PTF and Pete Rotondo
👉 Randy Moss and Jerry Bailey — Preakness Preview
👉 Full Preakness Hub: inthemoneypodcast.com/preakness
Looking for more on the Preakness, including grid picks from the team, coverage on the undercard, and wagering strategies?
SIGN UP FOR ITM PLUS →
📋 ICYMI
👉 Preakness Eve: The Field Is Set
👉 Two Days Out — Bill Mott Told His Son to Run
👉 Three Lines, One Race: Where the Smart Money Disagrees
👉 What Does the Data Say About the Triple Crown Conversation
👉 Browse all 37 Daily to Derby editions
❓ Today's Question
Who are you betting today? Drop it in the comments — and enjoy the race.