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Kentucky Derby 152 · Road to Churchill Downs

Daily to Derby

Your morning briefing on the road to the Kentucky Derby

Edition No. 2 · Saturday, April 11, 2026 · 21 Days to Post

Kentucky Derby 152 · Churchill Downs · Saturday, May 2, 2026

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Post time 6:57pm ET

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Edition No. 2 · Daily to Derby

We Have a Clear Favorite

Saturday, April 11, 2026

Class President Officially Out — Iron Honor First in Line

Horse Racing Nation · April 10

It was expected, and now it's confirmed. Todd Pletcher's Rebel Stakes winner Class President will miss the Kentucky Derby after WinStar Farm CEO Elliott Walden announced Friday morning that the colt needs 60 days off for bone bruising. No surgery required, but he won't make May 2.

The defection moves Iron Honor — Chad Brown's Gotham Stakes winner — from the also-eligible list into the field, provided Brown decides to press on after the colt's disappointing seventh in the Wood Memorial. Brown has not yet committed. One more defection and Chief Wallabee, trained by last year's Derby-winning conditioner Bill Mott, gets in too.

Full story at HRN →

Derby OddsWatch: Where the Market Stands This Morning

In the Money Media · April 11

We launched Derby OddsWatch this morning — our new weekly odds aggregator tracking four sources across the full probable field, with the ITM Composite Line coming soon for Plus subscribers. With Class President out and Iron Honor pending, the field is tightening.

Renegade has hardened to 7/2 on Oddschecker since the Irad news — the only horse in the field with full consensus across every major pricing source. The gaps between DRF, Caesars, HRN and Oddschecker on Further Ado, Fulleffort and the international runners are where the value conversations start.

See the full Derby OddsWatch →
Kentucky Derby 152 — Odds Comparison

Four sources. One table. The ITM Composite Line coming soon for Plus subscribers.

Horse DRF HRN/DeRosa Caesars Oddschecker
Renegade4-14-14-17/2 ▼
Commandment5-16-17-111/2
Further Ado5-15-18-17-1
The Puma8-18-112-112-1
Chief Wallabee10-1bubble10-116-1
So Happy12-125-115-116-1
Emerging Market15-116-115-116-1
Potente15-150-120-125-1
Fulleffort12-112-125-125-1
Silent Tactic20-150-125-125-1
Incredibolt25-1100-125-1
Danon Bourbon25-150-120-1
Iron Honor ▲ PENDING33-1
Albus30-1125-140-133-1
Golden Tempo30-150-133-1
Pavlovian75-140-1
Wonder Dean50-133-1
Six Speed98-120-1
Stark Contrast30-166-1
Ottinho125-150-1
Right to Party125-150-1

Commandment and Fulleffort Both Breeze :48.4 at Churchill

TDN / HRN · April 10

Brad Cox's two Churchill-based Derby contenders both worked four furlongs in :48.4 Friday morning — exactly on schedule three weeks out. Commandment went first, in company with Louisiana-bred stakes winner He's Late Again, completing an opening quarter in :24.4 and galloping out five furlongs in 1:01.4. Fulleffort followed two hours later, a solo move with the same splits.

Cox: "Both horses worked great. It was exactly what we were looking for three weeks out from the Derby." Further Ado galloped and has two works scheduled before May 2. UAE Derby winner Wonder Dean logged his first training session over the Churchill surface — the colt arrived April 1 and has been walking the shedrow since clearing quarantine. Danon Bourbon arrives April 21.

Full works report at HRN →

The Final Prep: Lexington G3 — Post Time 5:48pm ET

Saturday's $400,000 Lexington G3 closes the Road to the Kentucky Derby points series. No horse in the 11-runner field can crack the top 20 regardless of the result — the leaderboard is too top-heavy. Think Preakness auditions rather than Derby qualifiers. PTF and Eric Solomon have you covered.

Sovereignty Meets Journalism — Next Saturday at Oaklawn

TDN · April 10

While the Derby field preps at Churchill, last year's stars are gearing up for their own showdown. Journalism — 2025 Preakness and Haskell winner, runner-up to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont — has been confirmed for the $1.25 million Oaklawn Handicap G2 on April 18, with Jose Ortiz aboard in Michael Tabor's famous blue and orange silks.

Reigning Horse of the Year Sovereignty, trained by Bill Mott, is also pointing to Oaklawn for his 4-year-old debut. Both making their first starts of 2026. The draw is today.

Full story at TDN →

The Lexington won't change the Derby field — but it will tell us something about the Preakness. Brad Cox is sending two horses. Which of his Lexington runners, if either, interests you as a Triple Crown trail horse going forward?

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Apr 11 We Have a Clear Favorite Today → Apr 10 Irad Picks Renegade, Chief Wallabee on the Bubble Read →
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